The recent conflicts between the US, Israel and Iran, while not directly disrupting the global supply chain of core raw materials for stainless steel, have caused significant short-term market volatility, with impacts concentrated on costs and trade.

In terms of raw materials and costs, Iran is not a major producer of core stainless steel raw materials such as nickel and chromium, so it will not directly lead to supply shortages. However, the conflicts have heightened global risk aversion, which, combined with the earlier tightening of nickel ore quotas in Indonesia, further pushed nickel prices slightly higher. Meanwhile, shipping tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have driven sharp increases in global freight rates and war risk insurance premiums. Coupled with rising crude oil prices, these factors have directly raised energy and logistics costs for stainless steel smelting, squeezing profit margins for steel mills.

The impact on the trade side is more direct. The Strait of Hormuz is a key route for stainless steel exports to the Middle East. The conflicts have led to route suspensions or diversions, which not only raised transportation costs but also caused the loss of some Middle Eastern orders, particularly hitting export-oriented steel enterprises.

Overall, the impact of this conflict on the stainless steel market is dominated by short-term sentiment and cost disturbances, without changing the industry fundamentals. Supported by costs, current stainless steel prices are showing a relatively strong volatile trend, but weak global demand has capped gains. Further adjustments to Indonesia’s nickel ore quotas remain the key factor determining the long-term market trend.